The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that the initial economic data report, which was previously withheld because of the government shutdown, is set to be released next week. With the U.S. government resuming operations, market’s focus shifts to the timing of the release of essential data concerning employment, inflation, and other economic indicators. The initial report concerning September nonfarm payrolls is scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 a.m., as per indications. One day later, the BLS is set to publish real earnings, a report that complements the monthly consumer price index. This release did not occur concurrently in October due to the non-disclosure of average earnings, which are included in the payrolls report. Real earnings represent the disparity between the monthly Consumer Price Index reading and the average hourly earnings. Indeed, the September CPI represented the sole official data point made available amid the shutdown, given its significance in calculating the cost of living adjustment for Social Security benefits.

Analysts anticipate that the “employment situation” report, as it is referred to, will feature solely the nonfarm payrolls count, excluding the unemployment rate. The report comprises two surveys: one provides an objective analysis of “hard data,” as per sources. The latter survey serves as a basis for calculating the unemployment rate and presents challenges in terms of replication. The Commerce Department, along with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, had yet to release revised schedules as of Friday morning; however, updates are anticipated shortly. Uncertainty regarding additional releases adds another layer of complexity to what has evolved into a highly contentious environment for policymaking at the Federal Reserve, further contributing to the anxious sentiment prevailing among investors. “The absence of timely official numbers left the markets and the Fed operating in a data fog, forced to scour alternate sources to gauge the underlying outlook,” stated economist Shruti Mishra in a note. “With the shutdown resolved, attention will now shift to the forthcoming data release.”

The shutdown not only interrupted data collection and dissemination, but it also obscured the landscape once the data begins to emerge. For instance, the October CPI report may not be compiled, due in part to the methodology employed in data collection. The Bureau of Labor Statistics employs in-person visits, which precludes the possibility of retroactive data collection. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt issued a caution on Wednesday regarding absent data; however, Mishra indicated that she had not anticipated the CPI report even prior to that announcement. A statement on the BLS site requests patience during the data collection process, noting that “it may take time to fully assess the situation and finalize revised release dates.” In a similar vein, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which disseminates several critical data points including the Federal Reserve’s inflation measure, indicated that it is collaborating with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other agencies on data collection and “will publish updated release dates as soon as they are available.” Currently, a number of Democratic lawmakers are expressing impatience and are seeking clarification from the administration regarding the timeline for the data release.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Maria Cantwell, and Gary Peters asserted that “government shutdowns do not inherently inhibit the federal government from collecting or releasing economic data,” as stated in a letter. Referencing the October 2013 shutdown, during which the BLS subsequently announced release dates, it appears that the administration “may be intentionally restricting the release of data. The Trump Administration’s failure to release data or provide a clear schedule for the release of delayed data leaves businesses and policymakers without access to critical economic information,” the letter states. “Access to timely and comprehensive economic data is essential for businesses, consumers, workers, Congress, and the Fed.” The Administration should prioritize the release of comprehensive economic data ahead of the Fed’s meeting and return to the regular schedule of data releases at the earliest opportunity. Following Leavitt’s statement on Wednesday, various officials indicated that data would be released in due course; however, uncertainties remain regarding the timing and specifics of the forthcoming reports. Lori Chavez-DeRemer indicated that the data concerning payrolls and prices must undergo a thorough evaluation for accuracy prior to its release.

“I’m not sure when BLS, if and when they will be able to release that, but I’m expecting they will tell us a schedule very quickly about when those numbers could come out,” Chavez-DeRemer stated. Chavez noted that the White House has been “urging for accurate data to come out for November.” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst expressed optimism in a Friday note regarding the Federal Reserve’s ability to have the jobs reports for September, October, and November available before its next policy meeting scheduled for December 9-10. In September, Fed officials suggested that a cut in December was probable; however, several prominent officials have recently expressed skepticism regarding the necessity for further easing. In addition to the payrolls and CPI report, the BLS calculates data on import and export prices, job openings, producer prices, productivity, and various other metrics. The weekly jobless claims figures are released by the Labor Department itself. In addition to the challenges posed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Labor Department, the Commerce Department is responsible for several critical data metrics. Included in this category are personal income and spending, which encompasses the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation forecasting metric, the personal consumption expenditures price index, as well as gross domestic product. The release of data for October PCE is set for November 26. The Census Bureau is responsible for the dissemination of data related to retail sales, trade balance, and durable goods releases. Officials from the department did not provide a response to the request for comment.