Black Friday has historically been characterized by significant crowds, extremely low prices, and fervent consumers eager to secure the most advantageous deals of the season. However, in the current landscape, the most significant holiday for retail appears to have undergone some transformations. Retail establishments are adjusting their operating hours, with pedestrian traffic remaining stagnant. Meanwhile, e-commerce continues to gain traction. In an environment where promotional events like Black Friday commence as early as September, consumer sentiment is characterized by caution and skepticism regarding the true value of the discounts being offered. “The integrity of the event is pretty much gone,” remarked Mark Cohen. “Historically, a Black Friday price represented the most competitive offer available on a product … rarely to be encountered again.” In the contemporary landscape, promotional pricing increasingly enhances consumer welfare as the holiday approaches. A queue develops for the 4 a.m. Black Friday launch at Kohl’s department store in Pleasanton, California, on November 27, 2009.

Although Black Friday continues to be a pivotal day for numerous retailers and is arguably the most favored shopping day of the year, its significance is no longer solely characterized by the in-person shopping experience. Millions of consumers are anticipated to frequent malls, big-box retailers, and specialty shops on Friday; however, an equal number are projected to remain at home, engaging in online shopping via their smartphones and computers. This indicates a strategic pivot for retailers that have historically committed fully to Black Friday, including Walmart, Target, and Macy’s. Certain retailers, including Kohl’s, are initiating their holiday sales earlier in the season. Some retailers, including Walmart, are strategically timing their promotions across distinct events — one occurring in mid-November, another during the holiday weekend, and a concluding one-day event on Cyber Monday. A number of retailers opted to remain closed on Thanksgiving while nonetheless offering online deals throughout the holiday period. “I still recall queuing up outside stores waiting for those special deals that every retailer would advertise,” stated Denish Shah. “Currently, the process extends over several weeks and multiple days, with consumers predominantly engaging in it from the convenience of their homes via online sales.”

Over the past six years, online shopping on Black Friday has outpaced in-store purchases, with foot traffic remaining largely stagnant after a surge following the Covid pandemic, as indicated by data, a firm that analyzes anonymized mobile device data to gauge overall visitation to retail locations. Since 2021, Black Friday store visits have consistently exceeded the daily average for the entire year by more than 50%. However, the foot traffic that stores experience on the day after Thanksgiving has not shown significant growth, according to data. Between 2023 and 2025, there has been a decline in the proportion of millennials and Generation X consumers intending to conduct the majority of their shopping on Black Friday. According to data, the shopping behavior of both Gen Z and baby boomer consumers has remained largely unchanged over that time period. In the interim, consumer expenditure during the Turkey 5 – the shopping period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday – has experienced a decline for two consecutive years, as reported by the NRF. From 2019 to 2024, there was a decline in spending of nearly 13%. The anticipated decline is projected to persist this year, as consumers indicate intentions to reduce their spending by an average of 4% during the Turkey 5, based on findings from a recent Deloitte survey.

“There is still going to be a day of highlights from retailers, whether it is door busters, … certain additional promotions, etc.,” stated Tiffany Yeh. “However, it is less pronounced.” Cohen noted that the popularization of the modern-day version of Black Friday in the 1980s required a full year of planning to execute effectively. “The art was to persuade a vendor to provide a substantial discount on cost, enabling the creation of a highly attractive offer for the consumer that would subsequently … yield benefits throughout the remainder of the holiday season,” he recalled. “However, it necessitated a substantial effort.” Retailers needed to select the ideal product, establish the optimal price, and ensure that their competitors remained unaware of their promotional strategies. Subsequently, they needed to ensure that their inventory orders were sufficient to meet demand without leading to premature sellouts that could incite unrest. At 5 a.m. on November 28, 2008, shoppers flocked to a Best Buy store in Los Angeles, California, following the Thanksgiving holiday. Numerous consumers lined up for extended periods outside various retailers as they opened their doors to capitalize on “Black Friday,” the day following Thanksgiving, which is widely regarded as the conventional commencement of the Christmas shopping season.

As Black Friday gained traction, retailers strategically extended the shopping holiday, allowing their most significant sales momentum of the year to persist beyond a mere single day. Initially, stores commenced operations earlier on Friday morning, subsequently extending their hours to include Thanksgiving, followed by the initiation of promotions the day prior. As consumer expectations for discounts expanded beyond a limited selection of products, promotional strategies were implemented across all departments. Cohen remarked, “In other words, to sustain the ride, they started to dilute it.” As discounts proliferate throughout the store, the operational complexities associated with inventory management and staffing have intensified, prompting retailers to initiate promotions earlier than ever, according to Yeh. “It has consistently posed a challenge to adequately staff labor on such a significant scale for a brief duration,” she stated. “If it’s only for a day, individuals may not be inclined to sign up for that; however, if it’s for a longer season, there is a greater likelihood of attracting the necessary team members and facilitating their training.” Concurrently, there was a notable shift in consumer habits occurring in the background.

Online shopping experienced a gradual increase over two decades; however, the Covid-19 pandemic catalyzed a dramatic surge in its adoption. Currently, retailers are finding that the necessity for elaborate in-person displays on Black Friday is diminishing, as online sales continue to surpass those conducted in physical stores. Extending Black Friday into a prolonged event facilitates consumers in distributing their expenditures over time, Shah noted. “November and December represent distinct pay periods for numerous consumers,” he stated. “The ability to distribute expenditures over two pay periods, as opposed to a single one, has significant implications.” There is ongoing discussion regarding the actual value of discounts offered on Black Friday, particularly in a sluggish economic environment where retailers are increasingly relying on promotions to stimulate sales while simultaneously increasing prices to counteract tariffs. The first floor of Macy’s department store in New York is bustling with shoppers as it opens for Black Friday sales at midnight on November 23, 2012. Widespread discounting throughout the industry—before, during, and after the holiday shopping season—has resulted in a sense of skepticism among consumers regarding promotions in general, according to Sonia Lapinsky.

Some promotions this holiday season may be masking price increases, effectively reverting the cost to its previous level after a ticket price hike, according to Lapinsky. “They’ve had the power to cross-shop and look for these discounts, and now there’s just this lack of trust,” Lapinsky stated. “They are fatigued by this approach, and there exists a deficit of trust regarding the actual value derived from it.” For instance, brands such as Gap, Levi Strauss, and Under Armour initiated their Black Friday sales on Thanksgiving, with promotions that were similar to those provided earlier in the season. “The entire concept of generating urgency appears somewhat absurd and outdated,” Cohen stated. “Similar to numerous headlines that claim to present a bargain, the arrangement is somewhat deceptive.”